Monday, April 30, 2007
Buy and Hold: How to Perpetuate Your Investment Losses
A recent cartoon in my day-to-day newspaper showed two cats sitting in a bar. One is saying to the other: I did learn something from my broker...how to diversify my investing losses.
While this struck me as funny, there is certainly an component of truth to it judging by the number of tragical e-mails and phone phone calls I have got received over the past couple of years.
This was brought home even more than so by a reader who responded with strong dissension to one of my articles. I recommend a methodical, disciplined attack to investment in no-load common funds. It maintains me invested during up markets and on the outs of-bounds during down markets. It was exactly this attack that got me and my clients out of the market in October, 2000 and set us back in to take advantage of the April, 2003 upswing.
Judging from the readers e-mail it looks that he works for a major bank and is adamantine about Buy & Hold and Dollar Cost Averaging. Maybe it's the attack he have chosen and he doesn't like hearing that the Emperor is wearing no clothes. Nothing personal, honestly, but I happen it incomprehensible that anyone, after the bear market and the financial catastrophes most people experienced, can even see such as theories. The consequences are just too achromatic & white.
Here are his three chief points:
"There is no existent practicable manner to cognize whether the market is going to be up or down and when exactly to invest.
"The lone logical manner for an investor to do money is through the bargain and throw approach. This method is used by Robert Penn Warren Buffett and he have got consistently beaten the best with an average annual tax return of 29%.
"Dollar cost average assists to hedge against the ups and down feathers of the market; moreover, one should have been purchasing up pillory during the last 3 years, though I make hold with your cashing out at in 2000. I make not wish to affront you, but that looks to me more than fortune than intuition."
It looks that the lone thing that I can hold with him on is, as he says, there is no sensible manner to "know" whether the market is going to be up or down. However, this statement also underscores that he is not familiar with tendency trailing methodological analyses and the thought that one makes not need to "know" or "predict" in order to do profitable investing decisions.
I've set together the composite for my tendency trailing index in the 80s and it have consistently served me and my clients well by getting us into and out of the markets in a timely manner.
The reader mentions Robert Penn Warren Buffett's success. Sure, he is legendary, but retrieve that he made most of his luck during one of the top bull markets. He is probably now considered beyond good and evil. But what about the numerous narratives in the fourth estate over the past 3 old age of the heavy losings he sustained in Erythroxylon Coca Genus Cola and other stocks, by stubbornly holding on to this positions. When you have got enough money invested in a broad range of holdings, you go almost slug proof. Bash you suit in that category?
Furthermore, Buffet have got resources available that the investment populace simply makes not have. Saying that he is successful lone because of his bargain and throw approach, and everyone following this technique will be too, is an oversimplification and makes not factor in all the issues.
How many non-millionaires have got enough trim capital to maintain purchasing and retention and purchasing some more than while pillory plummet? How long tin they wait for the upswing when their cost-averaged retentions will begin to demo a profit? Bash the math! Yes, the market will eventually turn up. But will it retrieve adequate fast enough to change by reversal your losings in clip to make you any existent good? If you're 20, then maybe. If you're 60, who knows?
I have got got received infinite e-mails and phone phone calls from people who have been led astray by brokers, financial contrivers and others using buy-and-hold and dollar cost averaging. Stories abound of people having to travel back to work just because person told them that "the market can't travel any lower" or "let's dollar cost average."
As for his last point, when I gave the signaling to cash out on October 13, 2000, it had nil to make with either fortune or intuition. I had no hint how good of a phone call that would be; I simply allow my indexes be my guide. They pointed to a sell, we considered, and then followed through based on our experience. We held true to our doctrine and kept our emotions, speculations, fearfulnesses or greed out of the equation. This under control attack is what I advocate.
This twelvemonth it have led us to purchase back into the market on 4/29/03. And my elaborate analysis and rating of a range of finances led us to choose some of the best; my top monetary fund being up some 50%.
So, not to be cynical, but to me dollar cost averaging is just a manner to distribute the hurting over a longer clip period of time and to overcast the obvious with the hope the market will turn around tomorrow. After all, it can't travel any lower. Can it?
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Currency Trading - Make Money Fast With These 3 Tips
Currency trading is a great way to make money fast and here we are going to give you 3 tips (that go against a lot of common currency advice) but don't let that put you off 95% of currency traders lose and don't make money fast.
Here are your 3 tips for making money fast in currency trading:
1. Don't Diversify
I read a lot about how diversification spreads your risk and it does, but it also cuts your profit potential.
If you are trading currencies and you are a small trader (under $50,000) diversification will simply ensure that you dilute your profit potentia,or worse help you lose.
When you see a trade that looks good (in line with your trading methodology) hit it hard and risk as much as you can.
You will hear a lot of advice saying you should risk 2 – 5% well you won't make money that way! risking 5% on a $10,000 account is $500.00 and that wont get you much in the way of open positions.
Risk up to 10% and have the courage of your conviction.
Many currency traders try so hard to restrict risk, they never make any decent profits, as they place their stops to close.
This means they are bumped out of good trends even though they have the direction right, by normal volatility.
This is an error most novice traders make - they need to study standard deviation, but most don't even know what it means and they should - look it up and understand it fully if you want to trade successfully.
Don't make this mistake.
If you think the above sounds risky it is – but currency trading involves taking calculated risks.
If you don't like risk then don't trade currencies.
2. Be Patient
If you are risking more per trade and not diversifying, then you need to be very selective in the trades you take.
Patience is the key.
Many FOREX traders think the more they trade the greater their chances of success, but the opposite is true.
You don't get rewarded for how often you trade - you get rewarded for getting your trades right.
3. Trade In Relation To What's In The Bank
Judge progress by what's in the bank.
If you have had a good run you can afford to be a bit more aggressive (if conditions are right) and risk a bit more.
Generally, try not to have too many open positions, once you hit target bank and move on, this keeps you focused and is good for confidence.
Personally, I like to have only one or two trades open at any time
I will then shift position size and risk depending on how well I am doing.
It's always easier to risk profits you have made than your own cash.
So there you have 3 tips to make money fast in currency trading.
Many currency traders will see the above is risky, but that's the nature of currency trading:
Taking calculated risks when the conditions are right and waiting patiently for them.
Its logical and can and does make money fast.
Labels: currency trading, currency trading success, Forex, forex profits, learn forex, online forex trading
Thursday, April 26, 2007
The Futures Trading Game
The trading game is very, very simple. You connect to the internet and log onto your broker's web site. You connect to one of the many futures market places.
A futures market is based on something that tends to change in value continuously during the trading day; the Dow Jones stock index, for example.
You are presented with two buttons on your screen: - Buy and Sell. (There are actually many different ways you can enter Buy/Sell orders, but we will keep it simple here.)
If you want to bet that the index value will go up, press the Buy button. You are now in play. You can end this trade at any time you like by pressing the Sell button. This is a Long trade.
If you want to bet that the index value will go down, press the Sell button first. That starts your trade. You can end it at any time by pressing the Buy button. This is a Short Trade.
Continuing the Dow Jones example, we will assume that each index point is worth $5.
You think the market is moving up and decide to take a Long trade. You press the Buy button when the index is at, say, 11,600. You are right and 20 minutes later the index is at 11,640. You press the Sell button, making $200 profit. (The index went up 40 points at $5 per point.)
Suppose you were wrong, and after 5 minutes you see the index has dropped to 11,580. You press the Sell button and close the trade with a $100 loss. (The index dropped 20 points losing $5 per point.)
If you think the market is looking weak, you might decide to take a Short trade. You press the Sell button with the index at 11,600. You are right. An hour later the index has plummeted 100 points to 11,500. You do not think it will fall any further, so you press the Buy button to close the trade, and you book $500 profit. (The market has dropped 100 points at $5 per point.)
If you were wrong and 20 minutes after you start the trade the market is up 30 points, you could decide to exit the trade by pressing the Buy button and taking the 30 point ($150) loss. (You bet the market would drop, but it has gone up 30 points losing $5 per point.)
Trading financial instruments (futures, options, shares) has a lot in common with gambling. The essential difference is that it is possible for you to design your own playing strategies which give you a statistical edge over time. In gambling, the casino always has the edge.
Success at day trading futures contracts has almost nothing to do with your knowledge of finance and markets; there is no need to waste time reading financial pages, reviews of market action or watching CNBC.
The broad context of the game is the same for everybody:
Buy (go long) and sell at a higher price for a profit.
Sell (go short) and buy back at a lower price for a profit.
If you go long and the price falls, you make a loss.
If you go short and the price rises, you make a loss.
The challenge in the game is that price seldom moves directly in one direction or the other. Normally it moves up and down in an apparently haphazard manner driven by (1) the economic fundamentals of the market, and (2) the short term actions of other game players.
Short term futures traders do not usually study the economic fundamentals. Instead, they learn to analyse price charts and understand the various strategies that other traders employ. This lets them define situations where they can enter the market with a high probability of success, and a low level of risk.
Because the price moves up and down, you (the player) often have to make a choice between risk and potential profit. Suppose you bet the price will rise (go Long) and the price suddenly falls a bit. Do you hold on and wait for the price to turn round and move up as you expected, or do you sell and take a loss? How much risk are you willing to take?
Similarly, maybe you bet the price would fall (go Short). But the price suddenly makes a swing up. Is this just a temporary random swing, or is it a significant change? How much can you afford to risk before you get out of the trade at a loss?
What if you bet the price would go down and it does! In fact, the price plummets and you have a huge profit. Do you close the trade now and grab your profit, or hold on until the price falls further and your profit increases? (The risk here is that the price will rise again, and your paper profits will disappear.)
Because markets move in such a haphazard manner, nearly all winning trades will have been in a loss position at some point. So the question of how much risk you are willing to bear is a vital one.
To recap, the mechanics of the game are simple. All you need is to be connected to a market and have the ability to take two simple actions: Buy or Sell.
Because the rules of the game are simple, do not be mislead into thinking it is a simple game. The ancient board game Go has very simple rules. Almost anybody can play after a few minutes' tuition. But to play it well, that is a different matter! Trading is like that....
Notes
To a short term trader it makes practically no difference what the underlying commodity is. I looked at the Dow Jones contract, but there are dozens of different contracts to choose from. For example, the contract may be based on the price per bushel of soybeans, or the exchange rate between the US dollar and the yen.
You have to have a certain amount of money deposited in your trading account before the broker lets you to play. This is called the margin. It is not always the same. As an example the margin for one soybean contract is $675 at my broker (day trading), but it is $1406 for one Dow Jones contract, which is perceived to be more risky. The margin is there to protect the broker if you lose.
The broker charges you a fee every time you press the Buy or Sell button. This is the brokerage fee. My broker charges me $2.40 for the privilege.
If you are losing on a trade you may reach a point where your balance no longer covers the required margin for the position you are in. At this point, your broker may either close your position without consulting you, or contact you requesting that you immediately deposit more money to cover the margin. This is a margin call.
Labels: Broker, Brokerage, Day trading, Forex, Futures, Options, System, Systems, Trader, Trading
Monday, April 23, 2007
Senior Insecurity
Many billions of senior citizens and others have got most if not all of their retirement portfolios in interest bearing certifications of some kind. Many have got Treasury Bills, Certificates of Deposit, Government National Mortgage certificates, Money Market accounts, AAA corporate chemical bonds and more. They have got these because they are considered safe and secure and most don't fluctuate in value.
Most were bought some clip ago and many are coming to adulthood or are being called. When a bond, that's what they all are, maturates or is called (meaning the debtor desires to pay it off sooner than the adulthood date) it is paid off by the debtor to the creditor, the 1 who bought the chemical chemical bond originally. Now that individual have a smattering of cash and usually purchases another debt instrument.
Joe Ian Smith have a $100,000 cadmium in his chemical bond portfolio. He have been realizing an income of about $5,000 to $6,000 per twelvemonth in interest income. Along with his Sociable Security he have been able to get along because his house is paid for. He is just making it.
Because of the slowing economic system we have got seen the Federal Soldier Modesty Board lower interest rates 10 modern times this year. This is supposed to excite the economic system by getting businesses to borrow more than money to expand. Unfortunately, many of these companies have got works and equipment standing idle so they don't need to or desire to borrow even at these low rates. Yes, they will refinance their debt, but that is not going to make the consequences the Federal wants.
Poor old Joe heads down to the bank to purchase another cadmium and happens out that the best interest rate he can get for himself is about 2% to 4%. His interest income have shrunk 40% to 50%. Where he was getting by before now he ain't gonna brand it.
Joe states to himself, "I have got to make something different if I am going to maintain eating on a regular basis". Person gets clasp of Joe and states him about portfolio variegation and nice conservative common funds. When any broker or financial contriver negotiation about variegation it intends they don't cognize what to make with the money so they set some here and some there and hope for the best. Anyone who have listened to this narrative cognizes what I intend it doesn't work the manner it was presented.
Joe have been suckered into the stock market where he doesn't belong and is now locked into some bad positions.
The moral of this narrative is don't put in something you don't understand by some smooth talker. The safety of your principal is much more than important. It may be better to pass some of the principal as you need it rather than return a opportunity on higher tax returns that fluctuate in value.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Stockbroker Career
So you believe you might desire to be a stockbroker?
Perhaps the most popular country of the investing industry is that of a stockbroker. Although some of you might believe that breakage into the business is difficult, but it actually is pretty easy. That of course of study depends somewhat on where you would be willing to work and what you would be dealing in. If you are a immature individual out of high school or college and can accept less guaranteed money for the possible to do a lot, then the options are limitless. Unlimited income and freedom to command your destiny.
Sound to good to be true? Maybe, but the fact is many people have got changed their lives by becoming a Stockbroker or any Investing Professional. Brokerage firms that wage their brokers mostly on committee are always hiring. The thought that an unaccredited or inexperienced individual will not be able to happen a batch of gaps is false. The hazard that a stock brokerage firm takes when hiring new brokers in minimal.
A stock firm makes not pay much in salary. $250-$500 weekly during preparation is the average. So, if a firm engages person at $350 a week, the top to the firm is high. You have got to see the initial loss of income when entering this business. If you are 20 old age old, you might not see that wage in the beginning as that low. Older workers with more than than personal and financial duties have got to see it a small more.
Finding a occupation with a firm in this industry is different from others. Your picks are wide and the manner you travel about it can heighten your chances. Dont just look for occupation advertisements in the newspaper or the Internet. Call up the firms themselves and inquire about gaps even if they are not advertising. Look in your local phone book and phone call them. You may have got an office of a terrific firm in your town that mightiness hire you. Bash not inquire the receptionist if they are hiring. Ask to talk to the Sales Manager in particular. The Sales Manager of a firm is paid largely on the production of the brokers hes managing. So, if you sound eager adequate and come up across well on the phone, I vouch he will at least take your name and give it consideration if not convey you in that same day!
The Series 7 and the Series 63 licences will be required before you can get working with customers. Your firm will patronize you for those exams. Other licences may be needed depending on the firm and the securities they deal in.
Not an easy occupation for sure. It will take long hours, the ability and willingness to cold phone call effectively, and the drive to be the best. Only then, will you earn your worth.
Good Luck!
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Quality Investment Information: Standing Firm In the Face of Opposition
THERES something TO be SAID FOR standing firm in the human face of opposition. Interestingly, most of the best stock determinations have got come up at modern times when the mainstream is saying precisely the opposite. Predictions like these tin be valuable if one is to construct an investing strategy around their position of the world.
The assessment by the minority over the past few old age that rising prices would go back (while most of Wall Street was bemoaning DEflation) have proven to be true. As weve pointed out in the past, it can be readily observed in oil prices, existent estate, and tons of other trade goodss where no beginning of cheap importations is available.
As Steve Forbes comments in Forbes Magazines May 23rd commentary, oil became expensive because the Federal have got been printing too much money. Inch an earlier article, I mentioned that what were really seeing is just the consequence of a falling dollar, rather than rising oil prices.
Some mightiness wonderment how we believe of the dollar as a falling currency, because it certainly looks to have been rising against the Euro in recent months. Still, it may be more than accurate to believe of the Euro as simply falling faster than the dollar. Indeed, now that both French Republic and the The Netherlands have got voted to reject the europium Constitution, the full construction of the europium may be called into question, and while we dont anticipate the collapse of that institution, we make believe it will weigh on the currency for a time. As we have got said in the past, the attempt at fusion is itself no more than than than a expansive experiment, and the currency that accompanies it can be viewed as no more stable than the implicit in structure.
Still, none of this do us see the dollar as necessarily strong. In a human race where the Indian Rupee, Rumanian Leu, South African Rand and other historically unreliable currencies are rising steadily against the dollar, its cockamamie to believe of our currency as anything but weak.
In existent estate, many suggested in the past that a existent estate bubble may be developing, but also that much of the rise in terms may be coming from rising prices as well. Indeed, if any terms collapse makes occur, it may be some clip from now, and some parts may hardly experience it. The spread in terms between the large California cities and mainstream America is reportedly wider than ever before. It's best to utilize cautiousness in the red-hot markets in Cali, NY, and Mass., but the remainder of the country looks fairly priced. One should not be too worried about terms that have got risen no faster than the terms of oil. While others have got got got predicted (endlessly, it seems) that homebuilders ought to fall apart any twenty-four hours now, a few have continued to urge some of the best 1s and seen sizeable net income consequence for our readers.
Recently, a few financial managers have decided to take a place on Harley-Davidson stock that differs from most of the investing community. While Harleys quarterly earnings were indeed below expectations, the minority rejects the investing communitys hysterical suggestion that this is the end for the motorcycle maker. In fact, they firmly believe this volition bend out to be a small blip in the longterm upward trend.
It is determinations like these that set these advisors apart from much of the investing world. It looks that many of the authors in investment-land are contented to parrot the projections of corporate flunkies and authorities bureaucrats, without so much as a shred of independent analysis. Alas, as the demand for investing advice have got grown, it may have outstripped the supply of quality analysts, both in intelligence reporting and in the investing industry itself. This would explicate the measure of drivel coming from multiple beginnings these days.
We can occasionally happen akin liquor in the media: while it is invariably best to differ with Business Week, Fortune, and most of the television business news-trivia reporters, a few like Forbes, Barrons, Oregon TVs Joe Louis Rukeyser or Alice Paul Kangas still supply thoughtful commentary from clip to time. Overall, though, the U.S looks to have got reached a distressful clip in investing reporting.
Most reporters and publications are contented to simply reiterate what theyve heard, drama on emotions, and phone call it finish coverage. I say it do sense that eventually coverage of business intelligence would descend to the same degree as broader intelligence coverage.
In modern times like these, it is of import to choose a few good beginnings of quality information. It is just as of import to ablactate ourselves from poor information sources. If your newspaper, magazine, or broadcast station have ceased offering thoughtful analysis, halt cachexia your valuable time. Use your clip more productively on the few meaningful beginnings of information.
In visible light of so much fluff in the media, it is increasingly of import to stand up apart from the mainstream. You need information resources that are willing to make so, as well. Contrarians (investors who have got got bucked the trends) have fared well in the investment quandary. Today, contrarians biggest advantage is that they are willing to stand up out and avoid falling for the up-to-the-minute hype. Mindless followers, in an age of meaningless information, will eventually get slaughtered by following poor advice once too often. Dont tolerate lacklustre information resources. Seek out quality.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Margin Benefits are Marginal at Best
Margin is one of those things that novices find puzzling about the stock market, but the concept is really quite simple. Still, with understanding the basics of using margin accounts, determining the wisdom of using margin can be quite a conundrum.
A margin account is a traditional investment account with margin privileges.
This means your broker has set up what amounts to a line of credit secured by the stocks and bonds in your account. Often this margin credit line is used to buy more stocks in the same account. But the account can also be borrowed against to buy real estate, make other kinds of investments, or simply to pay personal bills. The simple requirement is that enough assets must be kept in the account to maintain a certain value as collateral for the loan.
This is where trouble comes in. Its easy enough to maintain that collateral level when all is well, but when the economy becomes difficult and you are strapped for cash, this is also often the time when the market may drop. When the market drops temporarily, your equity value may fall, but the value of your debt doesnt change; you may encounter a margin call when you can least afford it.
A margin call is similar to any other loan being called in. You must pay up immediately. If you dont have the cash, your stocks and bonds are sold automatically to pay your debts. This compounds your problem: you end up selling your stocks when they are down, usually the worst possible time. Remember, the idea is to buy when prices are down and sell when they are up. So, in addition to all the other problems, margin loans can force you to make poor investment moves. In times of market crashes, a heavily margined account might be completely lost when the market drops only a fractional amount.
This leads to the idea of leverage, which is what margin accounts represent. Anytime you borrow to invest, you leverage your investment, or buying more than you can afford for a fractional down payment. Since one is buying stocks with borrowed money, or borrowing against stocks already owned, this is the result. Buying a home with a mortgage is a very similar process, but since the bank doesnt typically call your loan if home prices dip temporarily, many of the problems listed above do not arise. Still, a 95% mortgage is a highly leveraged deal, and it is very easy to lose your entire investment with even a small change in real estate prices. Even a typical 80% mortgage can wipe out the entire investment in a poor market.
Despite the many risks associated with margin or other forms of leverage, there definitely are advantages. Certainly, weve emphasized the opportunity to lose money faster, but you can also make money faster using these tools. If half of your equity comes from margin, you can gain money twice as fast. As stocks go up, your profits are compounded, because you own twice as many shares as you could normally afford. Thusly, when the market drops, you lose twice as fast.
Also, some people benefit simply by having a margin credit line available, without making use of it at all, or by only using it for short-term turnover. If used judiciously by a disciplined investor, there is virtually no risk in having access to a margin account. It is the use of the debt obligations that carry the costs. Imagine having a credit card that is never used, but the credit line is available in case of major emergencies.
In the end, leverage simply means that your gains or losses will be multiplied. Each investor must consider for him/herself the acceptable level of risk. However, we firmly believe that there are other risks, which carry better payoffs than simple use of leverage. While it is good for most investors to have access to margin, it may not be wise to use it often. In addition to interest costs, the added risks may end up causing more harm than good.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Want to Trade FOREX? Then Ask Yourself This Simple Question
What's your edge?
If you want to win at FOREX trading you must have an edge remember this fact:
Around 95% of traders lose – so if you don't know what your edge is you will join them.
Let's look at the basis of having an edge and what you need to win.
FOREX Trading is HARD – and anyone who says it's easy, is lying.
You need an edge that allows you to win while the vast bulk of traders lose, it really is that simple.
The basis of what you need to do to achieve an edge is outlined below:
1. You can't buy success
If you think you can consult a guru or get anyone else to give you success you need to wake up and need to "smell the coffee"!
If guru's made money in the vast majority of cases they wouldn't need clients.
Some are good and genuine, but that's probably less than 1%.
If you want to follow one, you need to understand what they are doing, have total confidence in their method and see a real time track record of success.
You then need the confidence to follow their method with discipline.
2. You need a method you understand and know why it makes money
This means in most cases means deriving your method on your own and trusting it.
You need to trade it through losses and know you will end up a winner longer term and remember, all methods have long periods where they lose.
To win longer term you need to have total confidence in what you are doing and stick with your method through good times and more importantly, the bad.
If you don't have discipline, you will fall by the wayside like the vast majority of traders and won't be able to execute your method.
If you don't have discipline to trade your method, you have no method at all!
3. What sets you apart from others?
This is your "edge" the reason you will beat other traders.
If you don't know what your edge over other traders you will lose.
When you trade in the market you trade against other traders.
It's a brutal world where only the strong survive and you need to have an advantage and more importantly, know what it is.
An edge in trading can be a number of things, but one thing is for sure:
You need to know what it is and why it allows you to take on and beat the vast majority of other traders.
Common traits of traders with an edge are:
They understand everything about the market:
How it moves and why and they have built a method themselves that suits their personality.
They then have total confidence in their method and can apply it with discipline to preserve and make them money.
If you want to win you need to do the same.
In conclusion, if you don't know what your edge is, forget FOREX trading and do something else with your money or you will lose it all.
Labels: currency trading success, forex strategy, forex tips, forex trading success, online forex trading
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Fibonacci Numbers and the Golden Ratio - 3 Tips for Greater Trading Profits
In this report, we will look at the history and background of Fibonacci numbers and The Golden Ratio. We will then outline three specific money management tips that can help increase your profit potential.
Support and resistance levels are an important consideration for most traders to help identify entry and exit points when trading.
Fibonacci percentage "retracement" levels based upon the Fibonacci number sequence and golden ratio are very popular with many traders but what are they exactly?
What are Fibonacci Numbers and the Golden Ratio?
The Fibonacci sequence first appeared as the solution to a problem in the Liber Abaci, a book written by Leonardo Fibonacci in 1202 to introduce the Hindu-Arabic numerals used today to a Europe still using Roman numerals.
The original problem in the Liber Abaci posed the question: How many pairs of rabbits can be generated from a single pair, if each month each mature pair brings forth a new pair, which, from the second month, becomes productive.
The Golden Ratio
After the first few numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher number is approximately .618, and the lower number is 1.618. These two figures are the golden mean or the golden ratio.
Its proportions are pleasing to the human senses and it appears throughout biology, art, music, and architecture. A few examples of natural shapes based on the Golden Ratio include DNA molecules, sunflowers, snail shells, galaxies, and hurricanes.
Important Retracement Levels
The two Fibonacci percentage retracement levels considered the most important in trading are 38.2% and 62.8%. Other important retracement percentages include 75%, 50%, and 33%.
Three Profit Tips for Using Fibonacci Numbers
1. Fibonacci Defines Stop Loss Levels
A trader can use Fibonacci numbers to set stop loss orders.
For instance, if at least three Fibonacci price levels come together in a relatively tight zone, a stop loss placement just below or above the zone may be set.
A Fibonacci number helps define stops in the following way, if a trader trades against a support zone, if the support zone is violated and the price trades below that zone, the reason for the trade is negated and the position should be closed.
Setting stops using Fibonacci retracements takes the emotion out of trading and gives a pre defined exit point.
2. Fibonacci Defines Position Size
Depending on the risk you are prepared to take per trade, Fibonacci numbers can also define position size. For instance, if prices are right on a specific level, you may wish to have more positions than if the price is further away.
3. Fibonacci Defines Objectives
With Fibonacci numbers, once a pattern completes against a Fibonacci price zone you can use them to set profit objectives to bank partial profits or tighten stop loss levels. This clear objective for traders helps them to lock in profits.
The great advantage of Fibonacci numbers and the golden ratio is the fact that they take the emotion out of trading and can define not only stop losses to exit a market, but also set profit objectives as well.
W D Gann and Fibonacci - The Perfect Trading Combination!
One trader who incorporated Fibonacci numbers and The Golden Ratio into his trading was the legendary trader W D Gann.
We feel that the use of Fibonacci numbers with the Gann trading method provides traders with the best possible combination to seek long term trading profits.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
The 401(K): How The Insider Has Stolen Your Retirement!
Mutual finances were moderately successful in creating a presence in the stock market until the coming of the investing retirement account and in peculiar the 401(k). Corporate insiders persuaded the federal authorities to allow for the 401(k) in stead of offering employees the traditional pension. When this happened the employees lost the protection of a specialised financial manager who could manage both the tax return and the hazard of the retirement money of the worker.
This forced employees who are supposed to specialise in their work country into the field financial management with no preparation whatsoever. The 401(k) effectively military units people into common finances that as I just mentioned were ill-famed at the bend of the last century for defrauding the public of its savings. Ironically, these same executive directors had at the time, and still have, their company section of corporate attorneys. These secret sections make nil but contrive new ways for corporate insiders to sucking more money out of the firm in the word form of perquisites, stock options, and golden parachutes. This is the new word form of executive director stewardship over the shareholder value and employee retirement!
Why is this so tough on the employee? The 401(k) bes after make not offer individual pillory only common funds. What a scam! Corporate executive directors have got effectively forced you to put your retirement dollars with their buddies in the securities industry who manage these investing pools. If you could speak to person in the 1920s about this they would be shocked. Person from back when these investing pools were actively fleecing the public would see this as a criminal enactment perpetrated by the United States federal government, inside corporate executives, and common monetary fund managers.
Does that average the 401(k) is a bad deal? That depends. If your employer fits a percentage of your wages it may be a just deal but you should only lend only up to the matching limit. After contributing the upper limit matching amount to your 401(k) then set the remainder in a Philip Roth IRA. If your 401(k) supplier offers an indexed common monetary fund then set your money into that. An indexed common monetary fund utilizes a stock market index such as as the S&P500 to steer which pillory are bought. The biggest and oldest indexed common monetary monetary fund is the Vanguard 500 (VFINX).
A computing machine divvies up the cash in the fund to fit the index as closely as a possible. As such, there is not monetary fund manager to sitting on your hard earned retirement nest egg to rake you off in fake fees.
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Mutual Fund Selection Made Simple By Indexing!
Non-indexed common finances seek to maintain it secret that actively managed common very finances rarely make better stock market indexes. The higher fees of the managed finances really do it hard for these finances to out vie indexed funds. Smart financial journalists occasionally rat out monetary fund managers for not educating the public in this regard. When this haps the common monetary monetary fund managers do a lame attempt at self defense by pointing to something called the 5% rule.
This regulation states that for a fund to market itself as diversified it cannot have got more than than 5% of 75% of the finances entire assets in a single stock. In other words, a monetary fund can have got 25% of its retentions in a single stock, but the remaining 75% must follow the 5% rule. The 5% regulation was created by the Investing Company Act Requirement. Fund managers claim that this halters their public presentation instead of admitting that they are in the business just to nip you for high fees while the common monetary monetary fund under-performs the general market.
The truth is that the large slayer is the herd outlook of active fund managers. They follow each other around purchasing and merchandising the same junk. They flock to the same familiar companies and often overlook the new, indeterminate companies that show great promise. They take great comfortableness in knowing that, even if their monetary fund loses out on a great opportunity, most of the others in its grouping will too. They also cognize that they can draw their huge fees out during the whole clip your retirement nest egg are parked in their fund. Over the old age they pass a batch of marketing money to do you believe that they actually care.
That is certainly not the attitude I desire the manager of my retirement to have! You should be asking your self why the common finances dont just mime the same portfolio stock composition as a major index like the S&P Five Hundred stock market index. Well, some have got and those that are indexed out execute actively managed finances at the minimum management cost. For this ground I strongly urge that if you can only purchase common finances as in the lawsuit of the 401(k) then curtail your purchases to indexed finances like the Vanguard 500 (VFINX).
Sunday, April 01, 2007
The Past Does Not Equal The Future: Mutual Fund Returns!
A way that investors get ripped off and in a sense rip themselves off is based on the culture of performance in the mutual fund industry. If you stop and think about it there is absolutely no reason that the past has to equal the future. If you have not been particularly successful as a stock investor in the past, for instance, there is no reason that you wont be unsuccessful in the future. One reason I hope that you are reading this article is that you want to improve as an investor.
Lets discuss how professional gamblers profit in Las Vegas. Card counters are a type of professional gambler that uses their memory of what card cards have been dealt out of a deck in a game of blackjack (also called 21). Since there are only a certain number of each type of card they can increase their bets when it is more likely that they will win then lose. This works because after the shuffle the deck starts with a certain composition and a number of games are played until the next shuffle. Toward the end of the deck you can know what may be coming out if you are paying attention because each hand in the deck is depends on what has been dealt before.
There are no professional gamblers who count the numbers rolled on a pair of dice on the craps tables. This is because there are only two dice and each roll is different. In other words, each roll of the dice is independent of any other roll. Since each roll is different it doesnt matter what was rolled in the past. The same thing would happen if the deck in a game of blackjack were shuffled each time between hands. This is a lot like the stock market where we dont know what the general level will be from time to time because of random information entering the market in the sort term. Mutual fund managers try to outsmart the market in the short term instead of patiently waiting in the long term where it is more likely to correctly determine if stocks are high or low.
So why then does the public pay so much attention to the nonsensical advertising of mutual funds that brag about prior performance in past years? Mutual funds buy expensive ads in newspapers, magazines, and on television where they tout their performance over the past one, three, five, and ten years. The mutual fund industry irresponsibly promotes this culture of performance, even though it knows perfectly well that it misleads investors. Studies have shown that if you take the top 10% highest yielding funds in any year, four out of five of them will not be in the top 10% a year later! For this reason I strongly recommend that if you can only buy mutual funds, as in the case of the 401(k), then restrict your purchases to indexed funds like the Vanguard 500 (VFINX).
